Go Braves...
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| You're a wizard Harry... |
"The weather is getting warmer, the
plant-themed spring leagues are kicking up, and that one guy you know is trying
to convince you that it is the Cubs’ year this year. We all know that means it
is one of the most important times of the year in all of sports: time for your
Fantasy Baseball draft. Whether it is to assert your superiority over your
coworkers, show your cousins that they are still stupid, or swindle your old
college buddies out of their hard earned paychecks, the draft is a critical
component to winning your league. My role is to help pull back that curtain of
uncertainty and here are some things to keep in mind on draft day.
1)
For you amateurs, know your scoring.
It changes the value of players. A standard head to head league places higher
value on pitchers than a standard roto league (so if you’re in roto, don’t
reach for pitchers). The former also increases the value of consistent players
who have full time starting jobs, since you need them week in and week out to
win you that week. In addition, standard head to head leagues usually place
more emphasis on high OBP guys because of the total bases category, so love you
Logan Morrisons and Nick Swishers, people.
2)
Don’t draft for a name. If you’re
still riding the A-Rod or Jeter train, you’re in for a rude awakening. Same
goes for Ichiro, Nelson Cruz, and Kevin Youkilis. Age and injury risks abound!
Usually, if you’re smart, you can hold off and draft a guy a couple of rounds
later who can produce as good or better. Another name to watch out for?
Strasburg. He’ll be super productive, but he also has an innings limit. Let
that be someone else’s late season headache.
3)
Know who is awesome? Craig Kimbrel.
He’s a young stud closer with great stuff and job security. Know who I won’t be
drafting? Craig Kimbrel. No way in hell am I drafting a closer at the point
he’s going. Saves (and closers) are an unpredictable bunch. You will find Saves
on the waiver wire, you will find it from unlikely sources. Some of the same is
true of steals, but Michael Bourn is still a great pick.
4)
If you’re an idiot, you think all
positions are equal. Alas, each year, some positions have more good players
than others. Catcher, traditionally a shallow position, is pretty deep this
year. Outfield is unusually shallow. 3B seems to get shallower all the time,
especially thanks to David Wright. 1B and SP still looking deep. What does this
mean for you? Mind the talent gap. Troy Tulowitzki is high value because he’s
so much better than every other SS option, but Brian McCann is not as high
because the value of other available catchers (such as the various Monteros)
make drafting him early no longer a necessity.
5)
A lot of people play fantasy with a
strong attraction to the sleeper. In fact, they get so caught up in it that
they reach for sleepers. Please, don’t be that guy. The whole point is that his
value is that you can get him below his performance point. But hell if they
aren’t fun. This year’s high end treasure is Brett Lawrie, middle round seems
to be Emilio Bonifacio and Dee Gordon, and late round gems Dexter Fowler and
Cameron Maybin. People will reach for them. You, my smart friend, shouldn’t.
6)
I have trouble not being biased when
it comes to busts, so forgive me, but it is also because the most popular names
are overhyped. I know what you’re waiting for me to say. The bust is someone
you have to see who is either trending downward, had a great year from luck
(hello, BABIP!) or both. I’m not going to say it, by the way. Jered Weaver saw
some luck last year, as did, Carl Crawford scares me with his wrist injury and
strong downward trend, and you can stop falling for the temptation of B.J. Upton.
Oh fine, I’ll say it, just don’t even bother drafting A-Rod.
7)
Home field advantage is very real in
baseball what with different parks and all, so who goes wear is a big deal.
Edison Volquez’s move to San Diego could pay dividends because it’s a pitcher’s
park, while Mat Latos left that haven but for a place where he’d get the run
support to nab some wins. Meanwhile, the Marlins have made a ton of changes,
with benefits for Hanley and Reyes, but I think it will be to the detriment of
Heath Bell.
8)
Earlier, I mentioned seeing trends.
What do you with a guy who strongly bucks the trend? Adam Dunn went from a
premier hitter to a cataclysm of a season. Carl Crawford was a first rounder
not so long ago, and last year was seen in some free agent pools. Chone Figgins
has gone from an elite consistent leadoff guy to a complete joke. Who can
rebound? Not Dunn or Crawford, and while I want to believe Figgins (and Ichiro)
will, they won’t. Josh Johnson can, with new run support and plenty of rest, as
can Jason Heyward and his boundless talent, having worked on a new swing all
offseason.
9)
I’d like to end with the guys I’m
looking to snag in my drafts. I know you’re here for the names.
- Early Rounds: Mat Latos, Josh Johnson, Pablo Sandoval, Brett Lawrie, Starlin Castro, Michael Bourn, C.J. Wilson
- Middle Rounds: Eric Hosmer, Howie Kendrick, Alex Avila, Ian Kennedy (if he falls), Jason Heywad, Doug Fister, Desmond Jennings, Andre Ethier
- Late Rounds: Dexter Fowler, Alejandro De Aza, Daniel Murphy, Mike Leake, Huston Street, Brandon League, Russell Martin, Yadier Molina, Lucas Duda, Mark Trumbo, Gaby Sanchez
10) It’s a numbers game, so don’t be
afraid to play. Have an SP slot you can’t find the right guy for? Stream it
(last year, whoever was playing the Padres, Mariners, or Astros was a shoe in).
Have an extra position player spot? Grab the hot hand. Sell high on guys your
friends like and value a guy’s numbers over a guy’s coverage. In the end,
that’s all you’ll need.
Go forth and dominate."
